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Strategy for Over/Under 2.5
03-11-2013, 11:36 AM
Post: #1
Strategy for Over/Under 2.5
I take into consideration the last 4 matches of each team involved in the current game (that's 8 matches in total).

- if a game has ended with an over 2.5 score I give it +0.5 points.
- if both teams scored in that match I give it another +0.75 points (even if the match ended under 2.5).
- if the game ended under 2.5 I give it -0.5 points.
- if one of the teams didn't score in the match (even if it was over 2.5) I give it -0.75 points.

In the end I sum up all those points and I get a positive or negative result.

Exemple:
Match results 4:2 2:1 2:2 0:0 2:0 2:1 3:1 3:0

My calculation would look like this:

4:2 = +0.5 +0.75
2-1 = +0.5 +0.75
2-2 = +0.5 +0.75
0:0 = -0.5 -0.75
2-0 = -0.5 -0.75
2-1 = +0.5 +0.75
3-1 = +0.5 +0.75
3-0 = +0.5- 0.75

+0.5 +0.75 +0.5 +0.75 +0.5 +0.75 -0.5 -0.75 -0.5 -0.75 +0.5 +0.75 +0.5 +0.75+ 0.5- 0.75 = +3.5 points.

So you can bet 3.5/10 units on over 2.5 goals

If the result is -3.5 you bet 3.5/10 units on under 2.5 goals

The maximum results are +10 and -10 points. That would mean a certain over 2.5

I usually place a bet only if I get a minimum +/-5 points result.

by Vincent
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12-04-2013, 03:51 PM (This post was last modified: 12-04-2013 06:11 PM by maressalul.)
Post: #2
RE: Strategy for Over/Under 2.5
Hello,

I have a database with more than 20.000 games (all games from the last 7-8 monts). I run your caclulation on my database and these are the results :

HIT / ALL : 1551 / 3412 | 45,46 % | ODD= 1,70 -- PROFIT --> -775,30.

These means :
- from over 20.000 games ... 3412 have sum over 5 or under 5.
- from these 3412 only 1551 were winners ( win means game have sum > 5 and total game goals > 2.5 ... or game have sun < -5 and total game goals<2.5).

So for long term this strategy is bad.

I also made some calculation with 3 last games , also with sum 7 .. and all were not profitable. For all calculations I supose that Odd = 1.7 .

If you have a e-mail I can send you detailed results.

MareSSalul.
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12-07-2013, 01:28 PM
Post: #3
RE: Strategy for Over/Under 2.5
Thank You, i test this strategy in september and was unprofitable....
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